The Duck Curve#heat pumps
Utilities sought a record $4.5B for a third quarter, PowerLines says
Electric and gas utilities requested $4.5 billion in rate increases in the third quarter of 2026, the highest third quarter on record and $23.1 billion for the year, per PowerLines' October 7 index. The total does not split electricity from gas, but 46 of the 64 filings in its appendix are electric, including every one of $0.2 billion or more.
Heat pumps up 5.0% year over year in August 2026, a seventh straight gain
US shipments of air-source heat pumps rose 5.0% year over year to 338,416 units in August 2026, the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute reported on October 9, 2026, the seventh straight month of year-over-year growth by The Duck Curve's count of AHRI's releases. Central air conditioners rose 17.2% and gas furnaces fell 4.3%. The federal Section 25C credit for heat pumps ended with 2025, per the IRS.
Canada announces C$2 billion heat pump rebate worth up to C$10,000
Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a National Heat Pump Rebate on October 8, 2026, with C$2 billion over eight years attached in the government's backgrounder: up to C$10,000 for eligible below-median-income households and C$2,000 for other eligible households, for up to 820,000 households, with approval promised within 24 hours and no launch date given. CMHC mortgage insurance and the Canada Infrastructure Bank are to help retrofit 280,000 apartment units over eight years, rounding out what the government calls one million home retrofits.
Dutch cabinet plans hybrid heat pump standard for boiler swaps from 2029
Dutch Housing Minister Elanor Boekholt-O'Sullivan told parliament on October 7, 2026 that the cabinet intends, from 2029, to make a smart hybrid heat pump or a more efficient system the standard in many cases when a gas boiler is replaced, through a tightened efficiency requirement in the Buildings Decree. Apartment buildings, listed monuments and homes soon joining a heat network are expected to be left out, and publication of the decree changes is foreseen for mid-2028.
National Grid's winter heat pump rate clears the DPU at $0.02476 per kWh
The Massachusetts DPU issued two orders on September 30, 2026: D.P.U. 26-84 allowed National Grid's $13,559,331 performance-based ratemaking adjustment for October 1, 2026, and D.P.U. 26-78 allowed the rate summaries carrying a $0.02476 per kWh base distribution charge for November 1 through April 30 for customers enrolled in the optional residential heat pump rate, against $0.06777 on the default R-1 and R-2 rate. National Grid's filing puts the effect for an R-1 heat pump rate customer on Basic Service at a decrease on average of $104.35, or 11.0 percent, compared with the default R-1 rate.
South Coast AQMD adds $60.2 million to GO ZERO with lower home rebates
South Coast AQMD's board approved GO ZERO Phase 2 on October 2, 2026: up to $60.2 million of Rules 1111 and 1121 mitigation fees for swapping gas furnaces and water heaters for heat pumps. The board letter puts up to $20 million each into single-family and multifamily rebates, plus up to $20 million the Executive Officer may release in $5 million increments to those, small business rebates or outreach; it adds solar water heating, lowers amounts for smaller systems including mini-split and window heat pumps, and sets every single-family and multifamily rebate in its table below the pilot's.
Vermont Gas will fund and own Riggs Meadow ground loops; Dandelion drills
Dandelion Energy said on October 1, 2026 that Vermont Gas Systems (VGS) will pay the upfront cost of geothermal ground loops at Riggs Meadow, a 44-unit affordable housing development in Hinesburg, Vermont, with Dandelion designing and drilling; drilling is to begin in early 2027. VGS's June 27, 2025 filing in Vermont PUC Case No. 25A-0742 puts the $400,000 loop scope on VGS, $260,000 of it from the Climate Action and Innovation Budget in its Alternative Regulation Plan; the Department of Public Service did not object on July 28, 2025.
Newsom signs SB 222, California's heat pump permitting law, as Chapter 738
Governor Gavin Newsom approved SB 222 on September 28, 2026, and it was filed the same day as Chapter 738, Statutes of 2026. The chaptered text requires every California city and county, beginning July 1, 2027, to offer asynchronous inspections for residential heat pump water heater and HVAC installations; it requires real-time online permits for swapouts by July 1, 2028 and caps permit fees at $150 and $200, each with its own small-jurisdiction carve-out; it exempts plug-in window units from permits and voids HOA bans on replacing a gas appliance with an electric one.
EHPA: residential heat pump sales rose 11% in 12 European countries
The European Heat Pump Association said on September 28, 2026 that residential heat pump sales in 12 European countries rose 11% in H1 2026, to around 1,163,000 from 1,048,000 in the first half of 2025. EHPA calls the oil and gas price rise after the Strait of Hormuz closure and the Commission's plans to encourage EU governments to lower electricity tax likely drivers. The release links that sentence to its own March 10, 2026 item on the Commission's Citizens' Energy Package, and cites the July 17, 2026 Electrification Action Plan, which says electricity should not be taxed more than gas.
Newsom signs AB 1738, a remote-inspection option for heat pumps and solar
Governor Gavin Newsom signed AB 1738 on September 18, 2026, adding Section 17970.9 to the Health and Safety Code: cities and counties must offer homeowners, or contractors who give the city or county the homeowner's written consent, a remote-inspection option for heat pump water heaters, heat pump HVAC, reroofs, solar of 15 kW AC or less, energy storage systems, and smoke and CO detectors by January 1, 2028, or July 1, 2028 for cities of 50,000 or fewer; cities under 5,000 and counties under 150,000, with their cities, are exempt. SB 222 was still unsigned on September 27.
Trane launches -20°F heat pump five years after DOE's cold-climate spec
Trane said on September 24, 2026 that it is introducing the 20 TruComfort Variable Speed Cold Climate Heat Pump with WeatherGuard in 3-, 4- and 5-ton sizes, with an operating range of -20°F to 115°F and, per its chamber-test table, 53% to 85% of rated heating capacity at -20°F depending on model. The launch post traces the product to a prototype Trane says was independently confirmed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in November 2022 under DOE's Residential Cold Climate Heat Pump Challenge; EnergyGuide labels linked from the product page list SEER2 of 18.0 to 20.0 and HSPF2 of 9.4 to 10.3.
Rhode Island launches $32 million HOMES heat pump rebate for multifamily
The Rhode Island Office of Energy Resources said on September 23, 2026 that it launched the $32 million federal Home Owner Managing Energy Savings (HOMES) program, approved by DOE, to fund heat pump installations in income-eligible multifamily buildings of five or more units at up to $16,000 per housing unit; OER calls Rhode Island the first New England state to launch HOMES. The program page requires modeled energy savings of at least 20 percent and at least half of units occupied by households under 80 percent of area median income.
UK pushes electric heating appliance rules to October 2028 at the earliest
The UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero said on September 17, 2026 that the implementation date for electrical heating appliances under its draft Energy Smart Appliances Regulations will be October 31, 2028 or two years after the regulations are made, whichever is later, subject to final parliamentary approval; the December 2025 consultation had proposed December 31, 2027. The interim response also says the government intends to permit alternative compliance routes for the metering and cyber security requirements. The regulations have not yet been laid before Parliament.
Massachusetts adds winter transmission discount to two heat pump rates
The Massachusetts DPU stamp-approved National Grid's compliance filing in D.P.U. 26-71 on July 29, 2026 and Unitil's revised heat pump tariffs in D.P.U. 26-72 on July 31, 2026, adding winter transmission charges for the 2026-2027 heating season to the optional residential heat pump rates enrolled customers pay, as directed in D.P.U. 25-08-A on June 1, 2026. National Grid's charge is $0.00477 per kWh for November 2026 through February 2027 against a $0.05464 default; Unitil's is $0.01499 against $0.04201 in summer, a rate Unitil says it plans to replace with revised rates for January 1, 2027.
Daikin recalls about 4,633 Amana through-the-wall units over fire hazard
Daikin Comfort Technologies Manufacturing is recalling about 4,633 Amana through-the-wall air conditioners and heat pumps in the US, plus about 126 in Canada, because a snubber circuit can emit flames if it shorts, the CPSC said on September 3, 2026. Five PB-prefixed models sold from April 2025 through June 2026 are covered; owners get a full refund after cutting the cord. It is Daikin's second Amana recall through the CPSC in 2026.
PG&E launches Google-funded SHARE virtual power plant in the Bay Area
Pacific Gas and Electric Company announced SHARE (Smart Home Assets for Reliability and Efficiency) on September 3, 2026, a virtual power plant proof of concept it says will enroll nearly 21,000 existing home energy devices through Tesla, Sunrun, and Renew Home and deploy new Carrier battery-enabled heat pumps in Alameda and Santa Clara counties, with Google funding customer incentives, technology deployment, and program delivery. PG&E expects the resource to begin supporting the grid as early as fall 2026 and the program to run through 2027; no capacity or dollar figure was disclosed.
Skyven reports sustained COP of 8.0 at its Arcturus steam heat pump demo
Skyven Technologies announced on September 2, 2026 that its 1 MWth Arcturus steam-generating heat pump demonstration center in Dallas, Texas has achieved a sustained coefficient of performance of 8.0, up more than 20% from the 6.5 the company reported at commissioning on November 20, 2025. Skyven says Arcturus delivers lifts from 38°C to 185°C with COPs from 8.0 down to 2.0, and the release names no customer installation.
KIMM demonstrates ammonia heat pump cooling from 40°C waste heat
The Korea Institute of Machinery and Materials announced on August 5, 2026 that it demonstrated a chemical adsorption heat pump providing cooling from waste heat of approximately 40°C, well below the 70°C-plus that conventional adsorption systems require. Samjung Tech built a 10 kW-class prototype, and KIMM says the redesigned adsorption bed reaches a specific cooling power of 346.5 W/kg, more than twice that of comparable international technologies.
California Legislature passes SB 222 to standardize heat pump permits
The California Legislature passed SB 222, the Heat Pump Access Act, on August 25, 2026 (Assembly 60-8 on August 24, Senate concurrence 32-5). The bill requires cities and counties to issue real-time online permits for residential heat pump installations by July 1, 2028, caps permit fees, limits installations to one nondiscretionary permit, and voids HOA restrictions on replacing gas appliances with electric ones. Governor Newsom has until September 30 to act on it, according to Senator Scott Wiener's office.
