The Duck Curve#electrification
Heat pumps up 5.0% year over year in August 2026, a seventh straight gain
US shipments of air-source heat pumps rose 5.0% year over year to 338,416 units in August 2026, the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute reported on October 9, 2026, the seventh straight month of year-over-year growth by The Duck Curve's count of AHRI's releases. Central air conditioners rose 17.2% and gas furnaces fell 4.3%. The federal Section 25C credit for heat pumps ended with 2025, per the IRS.
Canada announces C$2 billion heat pump rebate worth up to C$10,000
Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a National Heat Pump Rebate on October 8, 2026, with C$2 billion over eight years attached in the government's backgrounder: up to C$10,000 for eligible below-median-income households and C$2,000 for other eligible households, for up to 820,000 households, with approval promised within 24 hours and no launch date given. CMHC mortgage insurance and the Canada Infrastructure Bank are to help retrofit 280,000 apartment units over eight years, rounding out what the government calls one million home retrofits.
Dutch cabinet plans hybrid heat pump standard for boiler swaps from 2029
Dutch Housing Minister Elanor Boekholt-O'Sullivan told parliament on October 7, 2026 that the cabinet intends, from 2029, to make a smart hybrid heat pump or a more efficient system the standard in many cases when a gas boiler is replaced, through a tightened efficiency requirement in the Buildings Decree. Apartment buildings, listed monuments and homes soon joining a heat network are expected to be left out, and publication of the decree changes is foreseen for mid-2028.
South Coast AQMD adds $60.2 million to GO ZERO with lower home rebates
South Coast AQMD's board approved GO ZERO Phase 2 on October 2, 2026: up to $60.2 million of Rules 1111 and 1121 mitigation fees for swapping gas furnaces and water heaters for heat pumps. The board letter puts up to $20 million each into single-family and multifamily rebates, plus up to $20 million the Executive Officer may release in $5 million increments to those, small business rebates or outreach; it adds solar water heating, lowers amounts for smaller systems including mini-split and window heat pumps, and sets every single-family and multifamily rebate in its table below the pilot's.
Newsom signs SB 222, California's heat pump permitting law, as Chapter 738
Governor Gavin Newsom approved SB 222 on September 28, 2026, and it was filed the same day as Chapter 738, Statutes of 2026. The chaptered text requires every California city and county, beginning July 1, 2027, to offer asynchronous inspections for residential heat pump water heater and HVAC installations; it requires real-time online permits for swapouts by July 1, 2028 and caps permit fees at $150 and $200, each with its own small-jurisdiction carve-out; it exempts plug-in window units from permits and voids HOA bans on replacing a gas appliance with an electric one.
EHPA: residential heat pump sales rose 11% in 12 European countries
The European Heat Pump Association said on September 28, 2026 that residential heat pump sales in 12 European countries rose 11% in H1 2026, to around 1,163,000 from 1,048,000 in the first half of 2025. EHPA calls the oil and gas price rise after the Strait of Hormuz closure and the Commission's plans to encourage EU governments to lower electricity tax likely drivers. The release links that sentence to its own March 10, 2026 item on the Commission's Citizens' Energy Package, and cites the July 17, 2026 Electrification Action Plan, which says electricity should not be taxed more than gas.
Newsom signs AB 1738, a remote-inspection option for heat pumps and solar
Governor Gavin Newsom signed AB 1738 on September 18, 2026, adding Section 17970.9 to the Health and Safety Code: cities and counties must offer homeowners, or contractors who give the city or county the homeowner's written consent, a remote-inspection option for heat pump water heaters, heat pump HVAC, reroofs, solar of 15 kW AC or less, energy storage systems, and smoke and CO detectors by January 1, 2028, or July 1, 2028 for cities of 50,000 or fewer; cities under 5,000 and counties under 150,000, with their cities, are exempt. SB 222 was still unsigned on September 27.
Trane launches -20°F heat pump five years after DOE's cold-climate spec
Trane said on September 24, 2026 that it is introducing the 20 TruComfort Variable Speed Cold Climate Heat Pump with WeatherGuard in 3-, 4- and 5-ton sizes, with an operating range of -20°F to 115°F and, per its chamber-test table, 53% to 85% of rated heating capacity at -20°F depending on model. The launch post traces the product to a prototype Trane says was independently confirmed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in November 2022 under DOE's Residential Cold Climate Heat Pump Challenge; EnergyGuide labels linked from the product page list SEER2 of 18.0 to 20.0 and HSPF2 of 9.4 to 10.3.
UK pushes electric heating appliance rules to October 2028 at the earliest
The UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero said on September 17, 2026 that the implementation date for electrical heating appliances under its draft Energy Smart Appliances Regulations will be October 31, 2028 or two years after the regulations are made, whichever is later, subject to final parliamentary approval; the December 2025 consultation had proposed December 31, 2027. The interim response also says the government intends to permit alternative compliance routes for the metering and cyber security requirements. The regulations have not yet been laid before Parliament.
Alstom signs over €1.2bn of contracts for 29 TransPennine battery trains
Alstom said on September 11, 2026 that it signed contracts worth more than €1.2 billion with TransPennine Express for 29 battery-electric trains plus maintenance, depot provision and charging infrastructure; the trains are to be built at Derby Litchurch Lane Works from 2028, per Alstom's expected start, and delivered from 2032. TransPennine Express and the Department for Transport put it at £1 billion. Alstom will install charging at Hull, Scarborough and Saltburn; Rock Rail funds the trains, replacing part of the Class 185 fleet. None of the four releases gives battery capacity or range.
Ember: coal power has stalled in 17 of the 26 Chinese regions it tracks
Ember's China Energy Transition Review 2026, published September 8, 2026, says coal generation plateaued or turned flat between 2021 and 2025 in 17 of the 26 provincial-level regions it tracks, together holding more than half of China's thermal capacity, and that thermal generation fell 0.7% in 2025 while electricity demand rose 5%. China's National Bureau of Statistics reports thermal generation down 0.7% and total coal consumption up 0.1% for 2025. Ember says battery storage overtook pumped hydro in installed capacity by the end of 2024 and grew 84% in 2025.
Skyven reports sustained COP of 8.0 at its Arcturus steam heat pump demo
Skyven Technologies announced on September 2, 2026 that its 1 MWth Arcturus steam-generating heat pump demonstration center in Dallas, Texas has achieved a sustained coefficient of performance of 8.0, up more than 20% from the 6.5 the company reported at commissioning on November 20, 2025. Skyven says Arcturus delivers lifts from 38°C to 185°C with COPs from 8.0 down to 2.0, and the release names no customer installation.
California Legislature passes SB 222 to standardize heat pump permits
The California Legislature passed SB 222, the Heat Pump Access Act, on August 25, 2026 (Assembly 60-8 on August 24, Senate concurrence 32-5). The bill requires cities and counties to issue real-time online permits for residential heat pump installations by July 1, 2028, caps permit fees, limits installations to one nondiscretionary permit, and voids HOA restrictions on replacing gas appliances with electric ones. Governor Newsom has until September 30 to act on it, according to Senator Scott Wiener's office.
